A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
