Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
